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Busy week for FX traders. ...

Peter Rosenstreich

Busy week for FX traders. For everyone in financial markets, last week was mental overkill. The FOMC raised rates 25bp, Dutch election, rumors of Article 50 getting triggered, PBoC unexpectedly increased borrowing costs, not to mention BoJ, BoE, SNB policy meetings. Yet when the smoke cleared, risk appetite was raging, with investor buying equites and EM and selling USD and yields (VIX slid lower). Moving forward we suspect the Feds “dots” are aggressive as real wages have turned negative. In Europe, comments indicate a Fed and ECB policy could converge around September. Both issues should limited USD upside and support further EM FX buying. Finally, despite peer pressure on CNBC and Bloomberg to forecast weaker GBP we retain the view that Brexit will have a marginal effect on sterling and longer term positive UK economic fundamentals will provide further upside for the currency.

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