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US Elections: Still time for a black swan event...

Peter Rosenstreich

US Elections: Still time for a black swan event?    Once again financial markets were unable to find a directional bias as participants struggled with locating meaningful drivers. In Russia, the economic data continued to disappoint suggesting the path to recovery is still far away. The Bank of Canada held rates unchanged, with consensus, but against our expectations. Yet BoC’s dovish language and weak economic projections suggests more easing is coming. The ECB held policy mix unchanged and Draghi provided negligible indication on monetary policy strategy moving forward. With Eurozone inflation underperforming, the lack of an announcement increases expectations for the December policy meeting. The final US Presidential debate provided plenty of highlights but little substance. Despite having no more scheduled election events for financial markets, especially FX EM, the path to Nov 8th is unlikely to be smooth. 

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