Russia halted crude flows to Hungary, Slovakia, and Czech Republic yesterday because sanctions prevented payment of a transit fee. But oil bulls are also quite this week, as US and Iran could finally reach a nuclear agreement, which would then unlock the Iranian oil and give a certain relief to the tight-supply market.

On earnings front, Coinbase missed estimates and Micron Technology was the latest US chipmaker to warn of a significant slowdown in chip demand, yesterday. While US chip stocks suffer this year, their Chinese counterparts grow fast.

Today is probably the most important day of the week in terms of economic data, as the US will reveal its latest CPI data, and investors have high expectations of seeing a softer figure in July.

A CPI figure in line with expectations, or ideally softer will certainly temper the hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations, pull US yields lower and trigger a relief rally across stock markets and gold. How far could the rally extend?

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Nvidia shares dived 6.30% yesterday on news that the company missed its revenue projection by $1.4 billion due to slower demand for PCs and gaming. Nvidia pulled other US chipmakers into the negative along with it, and brought the question of whether the chip rally, which was triggered by a $52 billion government help is over.

The dollar index gave back gains following the blowout NFP figures printed on Friday. Investors are confident that inflation in the US may have peaked last month, as the New York Fed's Survey of Consumer Expectations showed steep drops in inflation expectations in July.

In the FX, the EURUSD is steady around the 1.02 level, waiting for the dollar to soften on ‘good news’ to make a further attempt toward the 1.0350 mark, where stands the 50-DMA. Given that the European Central Bank (ECB) played its biggest cards at last meeting, there is not much upside potential from the ECB standpoint. On the dollar-yen front, traders now call the end of a particularly winning long USDJPY trade this year.

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Strong US jobs data revived the Federal Reserve (Fed) hawks on Friday. The US 10-year yield jumped, and the US dollar gained. Gold gave back a part of gains, and US stocks closed in the negative, although the three major US indices closed the first week of August in the positive.

Now, the S&P500 is nearing an important technical level near 4180 level, the peak reached in June, and the short-term direction will mostly depend on this week’s inflation data, due Wednesday.

Crude oil kicks off the week slightly upbeat, below the $90 level. News that China started mass testing in the Hainan beach resort comes as a warning that China is still not done with its fight against Covid.

Last week, OPEC increased the production outlook by a laughable, and a completely meaningless 100’000 barrels per day. That’s about 0.1% of the global oil output.

But the recession fears and the slowing demand will likely continue driving the market; we could see a further downside pressure on oil prices.

On corporate front, Coinbase, Disney, Honda, Coupang, and Rivian will be revealing their latest quarterly earnings.

On political front, the US Senate passed a landmark tax, climate and health-care bill, which includes tax credits for EV purchases & green energy incentives.

In cryptocurrencies, Ethereum prepares for its final test before the Merge update!

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