The Russian natural gas is now bubbling somewhere in the Baltic Sea, being wasted in front of the horrified eyes of hundreds of millions of Europeans suffering from a historical energy crisis.

The European natural gas prices jumped 17% yesterday, while crude oil gained 2.30% on news that Russia now wants OPEC+ to cut output as deadlines to implement Russian fuel bans approach.

Plus, if the escalation on the energy front is not enough, governments of the four Moscow-occupied areas of Ukraine have all declared victories in the referendums with, of course, an unprecedented majority of residents saying YES to joining Russia.

The mounting tensions with Ukraine and the spike in nat gas prices fuel the European inflation expectations, but in vain. The EURUSD is pushing lower against the US dollar as recession worries mount.

The pound remains under a decent selling pressure as the Bank of England (BoE) officials are pushing the can down a very steep road, saying that it’s more appropriate to wait 5 WEEKS before taking action.

Even the safe haven assets are out of action right now. The dollar-swissy is about to test parity, as gold pushes lower as the dollar extends rally, and US yields rise.

The Fed officials make sure no one breath. But it is well possible that after having wrongly insisted that inflation was ‘transitory’, the Federal Reserve (Fed) could now making a second Big Policy Mistake of tightening beyond-appropriate.

Watch the full episode to find out more!

We had a bearish start to the week on Monday and the price action across several asset classes remains volatile and chaotic - and that’s especially true for the FX markets shaken by the freefall in sterling.

The US dollar remains king, on the back of a heavy sterling meltdown due to irresponsible UK government / lazy Bank of England (BoE), and euro selloff on the back of Italy turning right / cautious European Central Bank.
The USDJPY spiked at yesterday’s dollar rally, as if the Bank of Japan (BoJ) never intervened last week. The BoJ head says that he supports intervention in the yen. In vain.

Equities selloff, as investors expect a deeper downside move due to pressured earnings. Tech stocks remain on the chopping block. To reverse sentiment, Amazon throws the second Prime Day sale this year, and Apple hurries out of China.

While outlook for equities remains bearish, the rising yields make sovereign markets increasingly appetizing, and an eventual inflows in global sovereign markets could be the first sign of healing from the actual financial crisis.

Watch the full episode to find out more!

The FX markets kick off the week on an extremely chaotic note. Both the pound and the euro are being severely punished for the political decisions that are taken in the UK and in Italy respectively.

As expected, the far-right candidate Giorgia Meloni won a clear majority in Italy at yesterday’s election, with Brothers of Italy gaining more than 25% of the votes. And Meloni’s right-wing alliance with Salvini’s League and Berlusconi’s Forza Italia got around 43% of the votes: the terrible consequence of the pandemic, the war and the energy crisis.

The EURUSD has been shattered this morning. The pair dived to 0.9550.

But it’s almost worst across the Channel, if that’s any consolation. Investors really hated the ‘mini budget’ announced in UK last Friday. Investors were expecting to hear about a huge spending package from Liz Truss government, but the package has been even HUGER than the market expectations.

UK’s 10-year yield jumped more than 20% since last week, the FTSE dived near 2% and Cable tanked below 1.0350 in Asia this morning.

Elsewhere, the US dollar index took a lift, and the dollar index is just crossing above the 114 mark at the time of talking.

Gold dived to $1626 on the back of soaring US dollar.

US crude oil plunged below $80 per barrel.

The S&P500 fell to the lowest levels since this summer, whereas the Dow Jones fell below the summer dip.

Happily, the European equities are better bid this morning, but investors remain tense and worried.

Watch the full episode to find out more!

A busy week for central banks come to an end with plenty of rate hikes, increased prospects of slowing growth, that leave investors with a bad taste in their mouth.

The Swedish Riksbank was the first major central bank to surprise with a 100bp rate hike.

The US Federal Reserve (Fed) delivered its third 75bp hike. But the dot plot hinted at another jumbo hike before the year-end.

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) maintained its policy rate unchanged at -0.10%, but intervened directly in the FX market to buy yen to fight back the strengthening dollar.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) raised its policy rate by 75bp.

The Bank of England (BoE) opted for a 50bp hike, combined with an £80 billion Quantitative Tightening, and said the UK is now in recession. The UK will reveal the ‘mini’ budget today.

Norges Bank also increased its policy rate by 50bp but signaled that tightening may be coming to an end. Indonesia and the Philippines also hiked by 50bp. Taiwan raised by a modest 12.5% as expected, Vietnam opted for a 100bp hike, South Africa raised by 75bp…

…and Turkey… cut its rate by 100bp for the second consecutive meeting!

But the week is not over. The Italian elections due Sunday will likely continue pressuring the euro lower.

Watch the full episode to find out more!

We thought that the Federal Reserve (Fed) decision would be the highlight of yesterday but news from Russia came to eclipse the FOMC.


Vladimir Putin declared partial mobilization yesterday morning. Putin’s announcement, which fell like a bomb on investors who were already stressed out due to the Fed decision, sent capital to safe haven assets yesterday, but gains elsewhere than the US dollar remained short-lived.
On the FOMC front, the Fed delivered the third 75bp hike yesterday, as expected, but the dot plot revealed that the officials’ rate projections went well above the market expectations.

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) maintained its policy unchanged.

The Swiss National Bank hiked by 75bp hike*.

The Bank of England (BoE) could opt for 50bp hike, instead of 75bp, as Liz Truss’s energy package could help taming inflation.

While the Central Bank of Turkey (CBT) should keep its rate at 13%. BUT WHO KNOWS!

Watch the full episode to find out more!