Research Market strategy
By Swissquote Analysts
Video news

Deluge of US data, Powell to shape Fed expectations!

Appetite in Asian equities improved on hints that China could ease the excessive Covid curbs as a response to angry anti-Covid protests, but appetite for rest of the market was limited before a deluge of US economic data and Federal Reserve (Fed) President Jerome Powell’s speech due between today and the end of the week.

Investors will be watching the latest US GDP update, the JOLTS job openings, ADP report today, the US PCE, personal income and spending on Thursday, and US NFP and unemployment rate on Friday.

Soft inflation and not too strong data is what the market needs to keep positive.

But in all cases, it’s possible that we won’t see US equities extend gains by much, and we can see the S&P500 headed lower from the 200-DMA, which also coincides with the year-to-date descending channel top.

Good news is that both a softer Fed due to a potentially softening inflation, or soft economic data in the US, should be negative for the US dollar, and could finally help the dollar ease against major currencies, hence ease the strong-dollar-led-high-inflation in the rest of the world.
Due today, investors will have their eyes set on the Eurozone’s preliminary inflation data for November. Who knows, maybe we will see a figure below 10%, in which case, the EURUSD could make another attempt above the 200-DMA which stands near 1.0370.

But as I always say, the US data, and Jerome Powell will say the last word on the overall direction in currency markets. Strong US data, and hawkish Fed comments could immediately turn the winds in favour of a stronger dollar yet again.

Watch the full episode to find out more!

Deluge of US data, Powell to shape Fed expectations! | MarketTalk: What’s up today? | Swissquote
By
Swissquote (in English)
Video news

Softer EUR boosts European stocks & CS outflows boost UBS

Markets were quiet yesterday, as the US was closed for Thanksgiving.
European markets mostly surfed on the positive reaction from the US equities to the Federal Reserve (Fed) minutes released a day earlier.

The German DAX advanced to a fresh 5-month high, as the French CAC40 hit a fresh 7-month high, thanks to the euro’s appreciation against the greenback, which somehow eases the inflationary pressures for the European companies, along with the falling energy prices.

Elsewhere, the latest minutes from the European Central Bank (ECB) released yesterday revealed that ‘a few’ officials favored a smaller rate increase, than the 75bp that the bank delivered last month, citing the other monetary tightening measures that would help restricting the monetary conditions. The Swedish Riksbank raised its interest rates by 75bp yesterday and said that the monetary tightening will continue to tame inflation in Sweden. The Korean Central Bank raised its interest rates by another 25bp to the highest levels since 2012 and the won gained, whereas the Turkish Central Bank CUT its policy rate by another 150bp points, but said that the easing is perhaps enough at 9%, and that risks on inflation – which stands around 85% officially, and 185% unofficially – increase from here.

In China, the central bank signals lower reserve ratios for banks, and conducts reverse repo operations to boost liquidity in the system, as news of fresh Covid restriction measures creep in. The Chinese news certainly prevent oil bulls from jumping in the market right now, and the American crude consolidates below $80pb this morning, with solid offers seen at $82/85 range.

In Switzerland, Credit Suisse continues making the headlines. The stock price flirts with all-time-lows, as UBS sees its share price extend gains as outflows from CS reportedly benefit UBS.

Watch the full episode to find out more!

Softer EUR boosts European stocks & CS outflows boost UBS | MarketTalk: What’s up today?| Swissquote
By
Swissquote (in English)