Disclaimer

Our systems have detected that you are using a computer with an IP address located in the USA.
If you are currently not located in the USA, please click “Continue” in order to access our Website.

Local restrictions - provision of cross-border services

Swissquote Bank Ltd (“Swissquote”) is a bank licensed in Switzerland under the supervision of the Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority (FINMA). Swissquote is not authorized as a bank or broker by any US authority (such as the CFTC or SEC) neither is it authorized to disseminate offering and solicitation materials for offshore sales of securities and investment services, to make financial promotion or conduct investment or banking activity in the USA whatsoever.

This website may however contain information about services and products that may be considered by US authorities as an invitation or inducement to engage in investment activity having an effect in the USA.

By clicking “Continue”, you confirm that you have read and understood this legal information and that you access the website on your own initiative and without any solicitation from Swissquote.

Research Market strategy
by Swissquote Analysts
Daily Market Brief

Euro to rise again CHF, as SNB kicks the can

Euro to rise again CHF, as SNB kicks the can

By Peter Rosenstreich

At its monetary policy meeting this Thursday the 14th, we expect the Swiss National Bank to do nothing significant – which will keep the Euro on its upward trend against the Franc. EUR/CHF upside has been tempered by North Korea’s nuclear threats, which drive investors into the CHF safe haven, but as the Korean story fades and central banks shift towards normalization, the negative carry of the CHF weighs on its forex value, thus boosting the Euro.

This is welcome news to Switzerland’s exporters, who have suffered under an explosion in the Franc’s value. It is also a godsend to the country’s banking, insurance and pension industries, who have been tormented by the negative interest rates that were introduced to quell the CHF’s rise. The SNB is loath to spoil any of that relief, so on Thursday it will sit quietly with its hands folded – absolutely no hawkishness expected.

In the background we see marginal improvement in Switzerland’s fundamentals. August CPI inflation rose 0.50 % year on year. Higher import prices (due to a weaker CHF) bumped housing, energy, and transport tabs, while other sectors continue to deflate. The economic outlook is so-so. The July economic forecast of the KoF (Economic Research Institute) was solid, but Q2 GDP growth of 0.3% was under the expected 0.5%.

 
Live chat