Research Market strategy
By Swissquote Analysts
Published on 03.06.2022
Morning news

Microsoft Cuts Earnings, Revenue Guidance Citing Foreign Exchange

Topic of the day

Microsoft shares recovered from early losses to finish up $2.16, or 0.8%, to $274.58, rising with the broader market. The software company cut sales and earnings guidance for the current quarter, citing the impact of foreign-exchange rates as the stronger U.S. dollar takes a toll. The software giant said in a securities filing Thursday that it now expects fiscal fourth-quarter sales of between $51.94 billion and $52.74 billion, down from its prior guidance of $52.4 billion to $53.2 billion. The quarter ends June 30. Earnings are expected to be between $2.24 a share and $2.32 a share, down from prior guidance of $2.28 a share to $2.35 a share. Economic weakness in other parts of the world has helped propel the U.S. dollar to multi-decade highs against its trading partners, which comes as U.S. inflation is at or near its highest level in nearly 40 years. The U.S. Dollar Index, which tracks the currency against a basket of others, is up more than 6% so far this year and hit its highest level since 2002 last month. The greenback's climb has sent the euro, British pound and Japanese yen tumbling. Microsoft said in its April earnings report that a stronger dollar reduced the software company's revenue and earnings by $302 million and three cents a share, respectively. Microsoft is the latest multinational giant to warn of the stronger dollar's impact on financials. Salesforce Inc. earlier this week cited the stronger dollar in lowering its sales outlook for the year.

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Swiss stocks

The Swiss stock market ended Thursday's trading session with slight gains after posting losses on the previous two trading days. However, the trading environment remained characterised by uncertainty. The SMI gained 0.5 per cent to 11,550 points. Among the 20 SMI stocks, there were 14 gainers and 5 losers, with 1 share closing unchanged. 22.51 (previously: 29.52) million shares were traded. Investors were more interested in economically sensitive stocks. Richemont, for example, rose by 2.7 per cent. According to analysts at Bryan Garnier, "iconic" brands are better able than others to cope with difficult conditions. Sika (+3.8%) and Alcon (+2.9%) were also high on investors' buy lists. Financials, meanwhile, lagged behind. UBS fell by 0.2 per cent and Credit Suisse by 0.1 per cent. Among insurers, the Zurich Insurance share closed unchanged. Swiss Re advanced 0.4 per cent. The share of index heavyweight Nestle fell 0.3 per cent. Among the pharmaceutical giants, Roche gained 0.2 per cent, while Novartis fell 0.7 per cent. In the broader market, Julius Baer climbed 1.0 per cent. The private bank is divesting Fransad Gestion SA. The Geneva-based independent wealth manager will be sold to its management, Julius Baer Group Ltd. said.

International markets


European equity indices rebounded on Thursday as investors considered the decision by the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (Opec+) to increase production to ease supply tensions in the oil market. The Stoxx Europe 600 index gained 0.6% to 441.2 points. In Paris, the CAC 40 and the SBF 120 gained 1.3% and 1.2% respectively. In Frankfurt, the DAX 40 gained 1%. The London Stock Exchange was closed on Thursday and will remain closed on Friday to celebrate the 70th anniversary of the reign of Queen Elizabeth II. Rémy Cointreau (+4.9%) published better than expected results for its 2021-2022 financial year. The group also announced an ordinary dividend of €1.85 per share in cash and an exceptional dividend of €1 per share which can be paid in cash or shares. Saint-Gobain (+4.8%) announced that it expects record operating profit and a double-digit margin for the first half of its 2022 financial year. Renault (+0.3%) announced on Wednesday evening that it had signed a memorandum of understanding with Managem, a Moroccan group active in the mining and hydrometallurgy sector, aimed at securing the carmaker's supply of "low carbon and responsible" cobalt sulphate for electric batteries.

United States

Stocks rose, with all three major U.S. indexes finishing Thursday on track to end the week in positive territory. The benchmark S&P 500 gained 75.59 points, or 1.8%, to close at 4176.82, while the tech-focused Nasdaq Composite added 322.44 points, or 2.7%, to 12316.90. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 435.05 points, or 1.3%, to 33248.28. Investors have struggled in recent months to assess how much and how quickly the Federal Reserve will boost interest rates in a quest to temper inflation. Some money managers worry that policy tightening could slow economic growth or even tip the U.S. into a recession. Supply-chain disruptions exacerbated by the pandemic have been further hit by the war in Ukraine and China’s zero-Covid strategy, lifting the cost of energy, food and other commodities. Some investors said they believed recent data suggests the U.S. economy is softening and inflation is cooling, meaning the Fed might not need to act more aggressively than already planned. Federal Reserve Vice Chairwoman Lael Brainard on Thursday said half-percentage-point interest-rate increases would likely be appropriate at the Fed’s next two meetings, but didn’t commit to a slower path at subsequent meetings. Investors are monitoring data on the labor market. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has expressed concern in recent months that the labor market is overheating. A tight labor market can add to inflation as competition for workers boosts wage-bargaining power. In individual stocks, shares of Chewy rallied $5.69, or 24%, to $29.18 after the online pet-products retailer turned in a surprise profit and forecast a revenue range that was mostly above Wall Street estimates. MongoDB shares rose $44.89, or 19%, to $286.70 after the database company’s results topped Wall Street estimates. Veeva Systems jumped $24.71, or 15%, to $192.55 after the cloud-solutions company raised its full-year guidance for sales.


In Asia, major indexes close with gains on Friday. In Tokyo, the Nikkei index increases by 1.1 per cent to 27,717 points, in Seoul, the Kospi rises by 0.3. In Seoul, consumer price data for May, which came in higher than expected with an annual rate of 5.4 per cent, put the brakes on. This could prompt the central bank to a tighter monetary policy, according to traders. There is no trading on the Chinese stock exchanges because of the Dragon Boat Festival. Among the individual stocks, Fast Retailing is up 5.6 per cent in Tokyo, the main impetus being the 17.5 per cent increase in sales of the retailer's clothing subsidiary Uniqlo. The share price of competitor Adastria climbs a good 4 per cent after a 32 per cent increase in sales.


Long-dated U.S. government debt yields slipped on Thursday. The 10-year Treasury rate lost one basis point closing at 2.922%, a day ahead of the nonfarm payrolls report for May. The two-year Treasury declined by 2 basis points to 2.634%. In general, yields across the curve held steady as investors assessed other labor data released on Thursday and remarks by Federal Reserve Vice Chair Lael Brainard. Brainard said it’s hard to envision a case in which the central bank wouldn’t raise rates in September.


Goldman Sachs raises Alstom target to EUR 22 (21) - Neutral

Metzler cuts DWS target to EUR 37 (41) - Buy

H&A reduces Multitude target to EUR 11 (13) - Buy

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