Research Market strategy
By Swissquote Analysts
Video news

Watching Big Oil earnings, after Big Tech wreaked havoc!

An ugly week of Big Tech earnings is coming to an end, having wipe out hopes of seeing earnings boost gains across the stock markets.
Yesterday, Meta plunged more than 24%; Nasdaq 100 lost almost 2%.
And today won’t be any better, as Apple and Amazon also lost in the afterhours trading. Amazon lost up to 20%!

US Big Tech rather killed joy this week, so all eyes are on Big Oil to reverse mood. Exxon Mobil and Chevron will be reporting earnings this Friday and are expected to announce stunning earnings.

On the data front, investors didn’t know what to do with the mixed US GDP data yesterday. The latest GDP update showed that the US economy grew 2.6% in the Q3, exports boosted the headline figure, while imports fell - meaning that the domestic demand from the US weakened despite a significant appreciation of the US dollar.

On the central banks front, the European Central Bank (ECB) hiked the interest rates by 75bp at yesterday’s meeting, as the stubborn Bank of Japan (BoJ) maintained its interest rate unchanged at -0.10% at today’s meeting, while revising the 2022 inflation forecast significantly higher from 2.3% to 2.9%.

Today, investors will be watching one last thing on the macro front before the weekly closing bell – and that’s the September PCE index, along with the personal income and spending data. Any weakness could further weigh on the dollar before we close the week, and before next week’s FOMC meeting.

Watch the full episode to find out more!

Watching Big Oil earnings, after Big Tech wreaked havoc! | MarketTalk: What’s up today? | Swissquote
By
Swissquote (in English)
Video news

Soft US data fueled hope. GOOG, MSFT hurt. META, next!

US indices rallied yesterday on the back of soft economic data from the US, but the sentiment reversed after the Q3 results from Google and Microsoft didn't please.

Both stocks fell in the afterhours trading. Rest of the earnings were mixed. Meta is the next US giant to announce earnings, and expectations are rather… low.

The US 2-year yield has been easing after hitting a fresh 15-year high last week, as the US 10-year yield fell to 4.05%. The dollar index tanked around 1%, both the EURUSD and Cable advanced past their 50-DMA, which were acting as strong resistance since the start of the year, especially since the start of the war in Ukraine.

The USDCAD fell to a 3-week low, as the Bank of Canada (BoC) prepares to deliver another jumbo rate hike today. The BoC could deliver a 75bp hike, which would further fuel the odds of recession in Canada by next year.

It’s important to note that the common denominator of the latest FX moves is the softer US dollar. And the downside moves in dollar and the US yields depend on Fed expectations – whatever the other central banks do seem accessory to the main dollar story.

The Fed expectations have been shaped by softish data, and some softish comments from the Fed officials recently. But there is nothing official pointing at a potential softening tone from the Fed just yet. Hence, the recent fall in the US dollar, and rebound in equities may not last. Gains remain vulnerable. And very much so, as the latest results from the US tech giants failed to make the investors smile yesterday.

Watch the full episode to find out more!

Soft US data fueled hope. GOOG, MSFT hurt. META, next! | MarketTalk: What’s up today? | Swissquote
By
Swissquote (in English)
Video news

Option traders see Tesla below $200. GOOG, MSFT in focus

After both Boris Johnson and Penny Mordaunt pulled out of the British PM race, Rushi Sunak cried victory on Monday afternoon, and markets cried ‘Ready for Rishi’.

The British sovereign bonds posted one of the biggest gains on record, the 10-year gilt yield tanked 8.50%, the 30-year yield dived 8.40%, sterling gained.

Investors loved seeing Sunak become the new UK Prime Minister, they, however, hated seeing Xi Jinping confirm a third term.

Nasdaq’s Golden Dragon China index lost more than 20% yesterday and closed the session more than 14% down. Direxion’s FTSE China Bear times 3 ETF jumped almost 30% in the session.

On macro, the PMI data revealed yesterday did little good to the mood in Europe. The composite PMI fell to 47.1, which is the lowest level since April 2013.

In the US, the services sector saw a sharp, and an unexpected decline to 46.6, from 49.3 printed a month earlier, and 49.6 expected by analysts.

Japanese core CPI advanced to 2% versus 1.9% expected by analysts. The dollar-yen trades touch below the 149 mark after the Bank of Japan (BoJ) intervened to slowdown the depreciation in yen.

In the corporate space, two big US tech giants are due to announce earnings: Alphabet and Microsoft.

Their revenues are expected to have slowed in the latest quarter, but how much of the slowdown is already priced in?

Walking into the results, it’s important to remember that soft results don’t necessarily mean negative market reaction. If the soft results still beat the market estimates, we could see Google, and Microsoft shares rally.

Watch the full episode to find out more!

Option traders see Tesla below $200. GOOG, MSFT in focus | MarketTalk: What’s up today? | Swissquote
By
Swissquote (in English)
Video news

Busy week: Big Tech Earnings, rate decisions, UK PM race

Last week ended on a strong positive footage, on hints that some Federal Reserve (Fed) officials have started talking about pausing the interest rate rises to avoid going too far.

Softer Fed expectations pulled US yields lower and sent equities higher.
On the earnings front, 70% of the S&P500 companies that reported earnings so far did better than earnings expectations, and big US tech companies and oil giants will be reporting earnings this week.

In politics, Boris Johnson announced yesterday evening that he will not be running for the PM role this week. That makes the British ex-Chancellor of Exchequer Rishi Sunak the front runner in the contest. Sterling kicked off the week on a positive note, but bumped into 50-DMA resistance.

In central banks, the Bank of Canada (BoC) is expected to raise interest rates by another 50bp when it meets this week, the European Central Bank (ECB) will certainly raise its rates by 75bp, while the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is expected to stay pat.

The BoJ intervened again in the currency markets on Friday to pull the USDJPY lower, after the pair flirted with the 152 level last week. The pair eased to 145.50 following the intervention and is back to almost 149 at the time of video.

In commodities, US crude trades around $85per barrel level, and gold is better bid. Softer US yields could play in favour of gold if we really start seeing material easing in Fed expectations. But the latter is data dependent.

Due this week, investors will closely watch the US latest GDP update, and the PCE index.

Watch the full episode to find out more!

Busy week: Big Tech Earnings, rate decisions, UK PM race | MarketTalk: What’s up today? | Swissquote
By
Swissquote (in English)