French Election - 2nd tour

Decrypt impacts' scenarios on financial markets

 

Financial forecast dashboard

Your comprehensive source, delivering polls, news and tools for the French presidential election

 

The main contenders

23.9%

Emmanuel Macron
En Marche!

Previously a business banker and Francois Hollande’s former Minister of the Economy, Industry and Digital Technology. He runs under his own political movement and claims to be neither left nor right. He has supporters from all over the political spectrum. He is a staunch Europeanist.

21.4%

Marine Le Pen
Front National

Daughter of the Front National founder and a lawyer by trade, she touts herself as the candidate for “Frexit” and the reindustrialization of the French economy. She also promises to withdraw the El Khomri law (labour law). She represents the far-right of French politics.

 

Infographics

A visual overview of the two final presidential contenders and their positions on the key policy issues

 

Opinion polls


National polls

These charts compile the latest polls on the voting intentions of French electors.

Our exclusive algorithms scan the web to display the percentage of positive and negative views expressed about the candidates (neutral opinions are not represented in the chart).

 

Social Media Opinion Index

Gain a unique insight into potential election outcomes with this innovative technology developed in partnership with the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Lausanne.

Positive Opinions vs Negative Opinions

The Social Media Opinion Index captures the opinions expressed on social media about the main candidates to the French presidential election. This social media pulse provides a different analysis which complements traditional polls, and is more reactive that the latter.

It continually scans the web, allowing to detect new trends on social media, which a frequent in this eventful race. The index is built by algorithms based on the latest developments in the fields of text and context analysis. They utilize Natural Language Processing & Understanding (NLP & NLU), chart analysis, Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning in order to optimize their interpretation of opinions over time.

Learn more here: http://socialmedialab.epfl.ch/


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What they are saying…

See the latest comments from the candidates on social media, updated in real time

« Parce que j’ai la conviction que rien ne pourra jamais justifier d’adhérer au repli sur soi, à la discrimination, à la stigmatisation inscrits dans l’ADN du Front national, à défaut de l’être dans ...
Read more
 

Stay on top of the markets with our exclusive research


Peter Rosenstreich
Head of Market Strategy


Yann Quelenn
Market analyst


Arnaud Masset
Market analyst

Swissquote's team of world-class market analysts is frequently consulted and quoted by the world's foremost financial media. Our researchers deliver in-depth analysis and exclusive insights into the markets through Swissquote's daily and weekly reports, as well as up-to-the-minute news and trade signals through Swissquote’s Twitter feed. They also regularly organize free webinars about specific financial topics.

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Read what the world says

Read the latest articles written about the candidates, as soon as they are published

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Financial tools

Stock indices and currency pairs likely to be impacted by the French election

CAC40

DAX

EUR/USD

EUR/GBP

EUR/CHF

 

Forex baskets

Once the final two candidates are known, we will release a purpose-built Forex strategy for each of them, designed to take advantage of their potential victory.

macron_2nd_tour.jpg

Emmanuel Macron President

Feeling of return to stability. The European venture gains a respite. Equity markets on the rise.

Long

EUR 35%
CAC 40 35%
DAX 30 %

Short

USD 50%
CHF 30%
JPY 20%

le_pen.jpg

Marine Le Pen President

Surge of volatility, search for safe havens, uncertainty due to a potential referendum on “Frexit”. European equity markets decline.

Long

Gold & Silver 45%
CHF 35%
JPY 20%

Short

EUR 45%
CAC 40 30%
DAX 25%

 

Emmanuel Macron
 

Macron is fervently pro-Europe and supports stronger European integration. We have selected banks, which would be happy to see Emmanuel Macron take office. We have also gone for national companies and included Canadian stocks, as revenue would rise with the free trade agreement.

Marine Le Pen
 

Europe is a focus of criticism from Marine Le Pen. We have decided on companies that generate a significant proportion of their revenue outside the European Union. That’s the defensive element in the portfolio. We have also included companies that do most of their business within France and could benefit from protectionist measures.

 

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